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Russia-Ukraine conflict: FAO’s risk analysis

Russia and Ukraine are net exporters of #agricultural products and are leading suppliers of #food stuffs and fertilizers to global markets.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have assessed the #risks emanating from the War in Ukraine in relation to aspects such as trade, price, logistics, humanitarianism, energy and production.

Here are some of the highlights from the FAO’s risk analysis:

📈 The increase in insurance premium rates or the lack of war coverage in insurance contracts for vessels sailing into the Black Sea has exacerbated the already elevated costs of maritime transportation, increasing costs of food imports.

🚚 The damaged inland transport infrastructure and seaports in Ukraine, as well as storage and processing infrastructure raises significant concerns about products intended for the export markets.

🚢 The suspension of all commercial shipping operations across Ukrainian ports has impacted the grain shipping trade more than any other, with grain prices and shipping costs soaring. The increase of costs for foods imports is threatening social disintegration in some of the poorest countries and regions in the world.

🏷️ Energy and food markets are tightly linked. If the war keeps crude oil prices high and continues to limit the two countries’ exports beyond the 2022/23 season, a considerable supply gap would remain in global grain and sunflower seed markets, even as other exporting countries expand their output in response to the higher output prices. This would keep global prices elevated well above baseline levels.

🛑 Russian export prospects are uncertain, given the economic and financial sanctions imposed on the country.

➡️ Full report: https://bit.ly/3OdwEe1

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